OPEC, Russia, and ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:UCO)
Today, rumblings exist in the oil market because OPEC has again called on non OPEC oil producers to come to the table with OPEC to reduce supply. OPEC has tried to do this before, unsuccessfully, but they are repeating their call to bring other countries to the table.
Mainly, they are trying to get Russia to come to the table and cut supply alongside OPEC.
Again, they tried to do this before, unsuccessfully, and Russia has been resilient to say the least.
With that stance, OPEC has had a very difficult time trying to justify cutting supply to stabilize prices when all they would do is lose market share. Therein lays the quandary.
I think everyone can see that if supply was cut by a meager amount oversupply in the global economy would diminish considerably and prices would skyrocket. My math suggests a 1% cut in output could cause prices to double or triple.
The problem is, Russia is not willing to come to the table.
Without Russia coming to the table there's a big problem because OPEC is unlikely to cut supply on its own. After the route that we have seen in oil prices, which has been caused directly by OPEC's stance, it would be a slap in the face for OPEC to cut supply without support from non OPEC oil suppliers.
I firmly believe that if an emergency meeting is called by Opec supply will be cut and oil prices will skyrocket, probably triple over the next 18 months after they begin to cut supply, but I do not see them cutting supply until such time as Russia comes to the table.
The rumblings we're hearing out of Opec are real, they absolutely want Russia to come to the table, and they absolutely want prices to be higher, but at this stage of the fight they are very unlikely to do it by themselves, but if Russia comes to the table it will be a game changer.
With that said, oil prices are up on this rumbling news today, but they were down 2% before the news given weak data from China, so if there is any are reason why the street does not believe that Opec will cut supply or that an emergency meeting may not come early gains we are seeing in oil prices could be reversed. intraday and there is even a chance that Oil looks weak again today.
Monitor United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO), Proshares Trust II (NYSEARCA:SCO), and ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:UCO) to identify changes in oil prices intraday.
There is a high probability that an intraday reversal happens because there is a very low probability that Russia will come to the table. Once tat settles in, the China news from last night comes back into focus, and Oil was 2% lower after that. Oil is currently 4% higher on the day, making the differential about 6%.