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Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) Remains Largely Immune to E-commerce

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is one of the largest operators of discount retail stores in both the US and Canada and remains largely immune to competition from online retailers. The key factors that act as a buffer to the competition from online retailers such as Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) include the low price points and the convenient location of its discount stores.  

The discount retail stores typically serves low income consumers and are the predominant retailers in many rural areas where most big box retailers would not open stores due to low population density. Convenience is also a major factor in Dollar Tree’s success given that it sells consumer staples that most consumers would rather purchase from stores near them than from online retailers where they have to wait for shipping.

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Our combined analysis of Dollar Tree indicates that the discount retailer’s revenues were largely flat throughout 2017 despite the negative impact of e-commerce on most physical retailers. The retailer also recently witnessed an improvement in store productivity at its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar branded stores.

The company’s quarterly growth improved slightly throughout 2017 and is likely to keep improving in coming quarters. The company’s annual growth metric declined slightly in the third quarter and is projected to decline this year. However, this might change given that discount retailers usually benefit from tough economic times.

The small size of most Dollar Tree stores also makes it easy for consumers to find products as compared to the big box retail stores where consumers might have to spend a lot of time looking for products in the stores.

The discount retailer is largely focused on suburban markets and stocks a wide variety of consumables, which attracts traffic to most of its stores. The $1 price tag on most items usually triggers impulse purchases by most consumers, which is what contributes to the retailer’s average ticket price of about $8.30 in 2017.

Based on the technical data and associated charts at the time this article was written, Stock Traders Daily has provided detailed trading plans, with integrated risk controls, to its clients. These plans will change in real time as prices move. To receive an update or to review the detailed trading plans associated with this data please review our Real Time Trading Report for DLTR.

Technical Summary

Term →Near Mid Long
Rating Strong Weak Strong
P1 92.16 89.17 100.55
P2 93.85 100.27 114.78
P3 96.34 111.59 128.86
Triggers may have already come
Support and Resistance Plot Chart for DLTR

Long Term Trading Plans for DLTR

March 19, 2018, 8:46 am ET

The technical Summary and associated Trading Plans for DLTR listed below will help you make important timing decisions for your trades. This data is based on our proprietary analysis for DLTR. In addition we offer Market Timing Models and Stock Filters in the links above which may increase the proficiency of the decisions you make.

DLTR - (Long) Support Plan

There is no current Support Plan to trigger a buy of this stock at this time. This usually means that there are no clear support levels at this time, so buying the stock as it falls could be considered catching a falling knife. Buy signals only exist if resistance breask higher.
This often is a signal that the stock you are watching is weak. Waiting for a turn higher may be more intelligent than trying to catch a falling knife. In any case, new support levels are usually revised to the database at the beginning of the next trading session.

DLTR - (Short) Resistance Plan

Short under 100.55, target n/a, stop loss @ 100.81.
The technical summary data is suggesting a short of DLTR as it gets near 100.55, but the downside target is not available from the current data. This tells us to hold that position if it is triggered until a new downside target has been established (updates occur at the beginning of every trading session) or until the position has been stopped. The summary data tells us to have a stop loss in place at 100.81. 100.55 is the first level of resistance above 95.75, and by rule, any test of resistance is a short signal. In this case, if resistance 100.55 is being tested, so a short signal would exist.


DLTR Long Term Analysis


DLTR EPS Analysis

DLTR Revenue chart

DLTR Growth rate - Quarterly

DLTR Growth rate - Yearly

Blue = Current Price
Red= Resistance
Green = Support

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